Investor Intelligence
Real Estate News & Insights
Monthly market intelligence for Canadian real estate investors. Interest rates, policy changes, cross-border trends, and actionable insights — everything you need to make informed investment decisions.
Policy Rate
Mortgage Rate
Month-over-Month
Renewals in 2026
March 2026
LatestThe Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on March 18, with the Fed expected to do the same when it concludes its meeting later today. Canada's February inflation fell to 1.8%, below the 2% target, but the Iran conflict's impact on energy costs has yet to filter through. Oil prices remain above $100/barrel, keeping US mortgage rates elevated at 6.35%. Nearly half of Canadian homebuyers have postponed purchases amid US trade tensions. Canadian home sales dropped 8.1% year-over-year while the national benchmark price fell 4.8%. Construction costs continue rising as tariffs on steel and aluminum take hold.
BoC Holds at 2.25% as Expected — All Eyes Turn to Fed's Dot Plot Tomorrow
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on March 18, as universally expected by economists and markets. With bond markets pricing a 92% probability of a hold, the decision surprised no one. Governor Tiff Macklem cited ongoing trade uncertainty from US tariffs and rising oil prices from the Iran conflict as key factors keeping the bank on the sidelines. All five major Canadian banks (RBC, TD, BMO, CIBC, Scotiabank) now expect rates to hold through mid-2026. Canadian variable mortgage rates remain at 3.35% (lowest available) while 5-year fixed rates sit at 3.94%, keeping the variable-rate advantage intact. Attention now shifts to the US Federal Reserve, which concludes its meeting on March 19 with an updated dot plot and Chair Powell's penultimate press conference before stepping down in May. The Fed is expected to hold at 3.50-3.75%, but its rate-cut projections will set the tone for cross-border mortgage planning.
Nearly Half of Canadian Homebuyers Postpone Purchases Amid US Trade War
An RBC Economics survey finds that 49% of Canadians looking to buy a home have put their plans on hold due to the US-Canada trade dispute. Tariff-driven uncertainty is now the single biggest factor restraining housing activity across the country. US softwood lumber tariffs on Canadian producers have reached 45.16%, and over 8,700 lumber and construction workers have received layoff notices since tariff announcements began. The trade friction is creating a two-sided squeeze: buyers are hesitant to commit amid economic uncertainty, while construction costs rise on import-dependent materials. For prospective homebuyers in both countries, this standoff is reshaping the spring 2026 market — potentially creating opportunities for those willing to act once trade tensions ease.
NAR: US Pending Home Sales Rise 1.8% in February, Beating Expectations
The National Association of Realtors reports US pending home sales rose 1.8% in February to an index level of 72.1, beating the consensus forecast of a 0.6% decline. Year-over-year, pending sales were down just 0.8%. The Midwest led regional gains as the most affordable region in the country. NAR noted that improved affordability conditions — including wage gains outpacing home prices — drove the increase, though rising oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions could reverse those conditions by pushing mortgage rates higher. Pending sales, which are based on contract signings, are a leading indicator of future closings. For cross-border Canadian investors, the data suggests the US spring market is gaining traction despite headwinds.
CREA: Canadian Home Sales Dip 1.3% in February as Trade Uncertainty Freezes Buyers
Canadian home sales recorded over MLS Systems dipped 1.3% on a month-over-month basis in February 2026, while new listings fell back 3.9%, erasing January's jump. The national composite benchmark price dropped 0.6% from the prior month to $663,828, continuing a string of monthly declines. There were 151,850 properties listed for sale nationally at the end of February, up 3.7% year-over-year but 12.3% below the long-term average. Activity was particularly slow in the Ontario corridor between Windsor and Toronto, coinciding with the outbreak of the ongoing trade war with the United States. Though most Canadian exports remain exempt under the existing trade agreement, its upcoming review is stoking anxiety that is spilling into the housing market. For prospective buyers, the combination of rising inventory and softening prices may create opportunities once trade uncertainty settles.
Dual Central Bank Week: Fed and BoC Both Decide on Rates March 18-19
In a pivotal week for North American real estate, both the Bank of Canada (March 18) and the US Federal Reserve (concluding March 19) announce rate decisions within 24 hours of each other. The BoC is expected to hold at 2.25%, while the Fed is forecast to maintain its 3.50-3.75% target range with 96% probability. The Fed meeting carries extra weight because it includes the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (the 'dot plot'), which will signal how many rate cuts officials expect for the rest of 2026 — a key input for cross-border mortgage planning. Markets are pricing in two to three Fed cuts by year-end, but surging oil prices and Middle East uncertainty could push that timeline out. US 30-year mortgage rates have climbed to 6.35%, up from 6.0% just two weeks ago, while Canadian variable rates remain anchored to the BoC's steady policy rate.
NAR: US Existing-Home Sales Rise 1.7% in February — Affordability Hits Best Level Since 2022
The National Association of Realtors reports US existing-home sales rose 1.7% in February 2026 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million units, though still down 1.4% year-over-year. The median existing-home price rose 0.3% to $398,000, marking the 32nd consecutive month of annual price gains. Inventory stands at 1.29 million units (3.8-month supply). The Housing Affordability Index reached 117.6, its highest level since March 2022, as wage growth outpaced home prices. Regionally, the Midwest, South, and West posted monthly gains, while the Northeast declined 6%. For Canadian cross-border investors, improved affordability and rising inventory in the US may create acquisition opportunities, particularly in the Midwest and South.
Iran War Pushes Oil Past $100 — Mortgage Rates Hit 5-Month High as Housing Costs Rise
The ongoing conflict involving Iran has sent Brent crude oil prices surging past $106 per barrel, up more than 40% from pre-conflict levels. The ripple effects are hitting North American housing markets on multiple fronts. US mortgage rates have climbed to a 5-month high, with the 30-year fixed averaging 6.12% as of March 16. Rising energy costs are adding to construction material price pressures already elevated by US tariffs on steel and aluminum. US gasoline prices are up nearly 80 cents from a month ago, squeezing household budgets. For prospective homebuyers and investors in both Canada and the US, the combination of higher borrowing costs, rising construction expenses, and inflationary pressure creates a more challenging environment — though it may also delay further BoC rate hikes, keeping variable-rate mortgages stable in the near term.
Bank of Canada Rate Decision March 18: Hold Widely Expected at 2.25%
The Bank of Canada will announce its next interest rate decision on March 18, 2026, with markets overwhelmingly expecting the rate to hold steady at 2.25%. Bond markets price only an 8% probability of a 25-basis-point cut. Key factors include February CPI tracking near the 2% target, ongoing trade uncertainty from US tariffs, and the BoC's own forecast of muted 1.1% GDP growth in 2026. After seven consecutive cuts through 2025, the central bank appears firmly on the sidelines for now. For prospective homebuyers and investors, this means variable-rate mortgage costs are unlikely to decline further in the near term.
Canada Inflation Drops to 1.8% in February — War's Impact Yet to Come
Statistics Canada reported that the Consumer Price Index rose just 1.8% year-over-year in February 2026, down from 2.3% in January, dropping below the Bank of Canada's 2% midpoint target. Core inflation measures also eased: CPI-common fell from 2.7% to 2.4%, CPI-median from 2.5% to 2.3%, and CPI-trim from 2.4% to 2.3%. The deceleration was partly driven by base-year effects from the 2025 GST/HST holiday ending, plus falling gasoline prices (-14.2%) and natural gas (-17.1%). Crucially, the February data predates the full impact of the Iran conflict on energy prices — oil has since surged past $100 per barrel, meaning March and April CPI readings could reverse the trend. For the housing market, the softer inflation data supports the case for the Bank of Canada to hold or eventually cut rates, but oil-driven inflation could delay any future easing. Mortgage borrowers should not expect rate relief in the near term.
CMHC: February Housing Starts Edge Up 4.5% — Vancouver Surges, Toronto Slips
CMHC's February 2026 data shows the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts rose 4.5% to 250,900 units, up from 240,148 in January. The six-month trend held nearly flat at 256,005 units. Regional divergence was stark: Vancouver posted a 60% year-over-year increase in starts, Montreal was up 18%, but Toronto saw starts decline 28%. Nationally, actual starts in centres with 10,000+ population were up 10% year-over-year. The data suggests rental-focused construction continues to drive activity while condo markets lag. For investors, Vancouver and Montreal are seeing strong new supply pipelines, while Toronto's declining starts could eventually tighten supply.
Canadian Home Sales Fall 8.1% as Buyers Stay Cautious
CREA's February 2026 data shows national home sales dropped 8.1% year-over-year, with the national average price edging down 0.2% to $663,828. The MLS Home Price Index fell 4.9% on a year-over-year basis. Ontario was hit hardest, with sales down 8.1% and benchmark prices dropping 6.7%. Months of inventory climbed to 5.3, up from 4.8 a year ago. For investors, rising inventory and softening prices may signal buying opportunities in select Ontario and BC markets.
US Mortgage Rates Reverse Course — 30-Year Jumps Back Above 6%
The US 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.11% as of March 12, up from 6.00% the prior week, ending a brief dip below 6%. Rising oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions and lingering inflationary pressures are pushing rates higher. Despite the uptick, purchase applications increased as spring homebuying season heats up. For cross-border Canadian investors, the window of sub-6% rates appears to have closed for now.
CMHC: Rental Construction Hits Record High as Condo Starts Collapse
CMHC's Spring 2026 Housing Supply Report reveals that rental construction drove a 6% year-over-year increase in housing starts to 259,000 units in 2025, with rental units under construction nearly double the 10-year average. However, condominium presales have collapsed and unsold inventories are rising, making it difficult for developers to secure financing. Housing starts are expected to decline through 2026-2028. For investors, the shift toward purpose-built rentals creates opportunities in the rental market while the condo glut may present below-market acquisition targets.
Bank of Canada Holds at 2.25% — What It Means for Investors
The Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 2.25% on March 12, with bond markets pricing only an 8% chance of a cut at the next decision. After seven consecutive cuts through 2025, the central bank appears comfortable with its current stance. For investors, this means borrowing costs are unlikely to drop further in the near term — lock in rates now if you’re financing a deal.
US 30-Year Mortgage Falls Below 6% — Best Rate in Three Years
The US 30-year fixed conventional mortgage rate dropped to 5.98% in late February, the lowest level since 2023. For Canadian cross-border investors, this is a significant window — lower borrowing costs combined with a weaker Canadian dollar create a compelling entry point for US property acquisitions in the Midwest and Southeast.
Tariff Fallout: How Canada-US Trade Tensions Impact RE Investors
US tariffs on steel, aluminum, and lumber are driving construction costs higher on both sides of the border. Canadian developers face tighter margins, while US housing starts have actually surged 7.2% as builders rush to lock in pre-tariff material costs. Smart investors are pivoting to existing properties and locking in contractor pricing early.
Institutional Investors Flee US Housing — What Individual Buyers Should Know
Major institutional investors are now net sellers of US single-family homes, with Trump’s executive order restricting large investors from buying single-family rentals. The proposed legislation would ban investors owning 100+ homes from acquiring more. For individual Canadian investors, this means less competition and more inventory in key markets.
1.3 Million Mortgage Renewals Coming — Opportunity or Risk?
Over 1.3 million Canadian mortgages are up for renewal in 2026, with 28% of homeowners already switching lenders for better deals. This renewal wave could create motivated sellers in overextended markets, presenting opportunities for investors with cash or pre-approved financing. Watch Ontario and BC markets especially closely.
Midwest Leads US Price Growth — Best Markets for Canadian Investors
The US Midwest posted the strongest regional price growth at 3.56% year-over-year, led by Illinois (+4.91%), Wisconsin (+4.78%), and Nebraska (+4.75%). Meanwhile, Florida (-2.36%) and Colorado (-1.31%) are seeing price declines. For Canadians entering the US market, the Midwest offers strong fundamentals with lower entry points.
Build-to-Rent Surge: Investors Pivot as Regulations Tighten
With restrictions on institutional single-family purchases, investors are pivoting to the build-to-rent (BTR) sector. New construction specifically built as rentals is exempt from the executive order. For well-capitalized Canadian investors, BTR joint ventures in growing US metros offer a compliant path to scale.
Spring 2026 Outlook: Measured Recovery for Canadian Housing
Canada’s housing market is finding its balance after several turbulent years. Lower rates have stabilized activity, but high debt loads and renewal pressures are keeping the market from overheating. Motivated buyers will find reasonable supply and softer prices, while investors should watch for deals from overleveraged sellers unable to handle higher renewal payments.
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