August 2026.

Rate Watch, week of August 31: the final day of August opened the new week the way most of the month's Mondays opened — with nothing new on the tape. No Canadian primary-source housing or rates release was scheduled for August 31, and at curation time Statistics Canada's Daily for the day had not yet posted (The Daily publishes at 8:30 a.m. Eastern), leaving Friday August 28's bulletin as the standing latest. What the week does carry is the one date that has been pulling the whole month toward it: the Bank of Canada's interest rate announcement on Wednesday September 2 at 9:45 a.m. Eastern. No Monetary Policy Report is attached to this decision — the next MPR lands with the October 28 announcement — so the statement itself, and the Summary of Deliberations that follows on September 16, are the only windows into the Governing Council's thinking. Forecasters are unusually unanimous about the outcome. A Reuters poll published August 28 found all 35 economists surveyed expect the overnight rate to stay at 2.25%; the median view has it held there through the rest of 2026 and into the third quarter of 2027 before rising to 2.50% in the fourth quarter of 2027, and nearly half the panel (47%) now expects at least one hike by the end of the second quarter of 2027 — a forecast path that points up, not down. "In the near term, any concerns over inflation ahead are roughly offset by risks to economic growth from trade tensions, leaving the Bank in a watchful-waiting stance," said Avery Shenfeld of CIBC Capital Markets. The data the Bank arrives with explains the unanimity. Statistics Canada's second-quarter GDP report on August 28 showed real GDP up 0.8% in the quarter, an annualized 3.3% and the fastest pace since early 2023, comfortably above the roughly 2.5% the Bank had projected; the first quarter was revised up from 0.0% to 0.1%, retiring the technical-recession question, and June GDP by industry rose 0.3%. July CPI sits at 3.0% year-over-year, up from 2.8% in June and a full point above target, and the July Labour Force Survey added 75,000 jobs while pulling unemployment to a two-year-low 6.4%. Growth beat, inflation is above target, and employment is firm — there is little on paper arguing for a cut. A count worth getting right: the policy rate has been 2.25% since the October 29, 2025 cut, and the Bank has held at six consecutive decisions since (December 10, January 28, March 18, April 29, June 10 and July 15), so Wednesday would be the seventh consecutive hold; outlets counting only 2026 decisions will call the same one the sixth. On the American side, Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending Thursday August 27 is confirmed at a 6.66% 30-year fixed and a 5.98% 15-year fixed, up from 6.65% and 5.95% and ending a two-week decline; both sit above where they were a year earlier, when the August 27, 2025 survey printed 6.56% and 5.69%. Because the PMMS prints only on Thursdays, the August 27 survey is the standing US reference until September 3. For Canadian borrowers the mechanism matters more than the headline: fixed mortgage rates are priced off Government of Canada bond yields, not the Bank's overnight rate, so a hold on Wednesday does not by itself move fixed pricing — what moves it is how the bond market reads the statement's tone. Only variable rates and lines of credit track the policy rate directly, through prime at 4.45%. The best-broker insured 5-year fixed stays anchored near 4.04% off a cycle-low 5-year Government of Canada benchmark yield. If you are renewing, buying, or weighing fixed against variable this week, decide on your own numbers rather than on the announcement. The Maple Syrup Money mortgage payment, affordability and stress-test, and rent-vs-buy calculators at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential turn these rate and price levels into a real monthly number, and the commercial and investing calculators (cap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCR, cash flow analyzer) at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial do the same for income property. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

Rate Watch, week of August 24: the last full week of August ran data-quiet right up until it didn't. Monday August 24 through Thursday August 27 each passed without a new domestic primary-source housing or rates print, and the weekend of August 29–30 closed the week out the same way, with Canadian exchanges and bond desks shut and no new primary-source release on either side of the border. The week's one catalyst landed on Friday, and it landed hard: Statistics Canada's second-quarter 2026 Gross Domestic Product report showed real GDP up 0.8% in the quarter, an annualized 3.3% — the fastest pace since early 2023, above the roughly 2.5% the Bank of Canada had projected, and far above the +0.2% June advance the agency had signalled on July 31. The first quarter was revised up from 0.0% to 0.1%, which retires the technical-recession question. That leaves the Bank of Canada arriving at its September 2 decision, now three days out and falling on a Wednesday, with the full picture in hand and little in it arguing for action: growth beat expectations, July CPI sits at 3.0% year-over-year (up from 2.8% in June and a full point above target), and the July labour force survey added 75,000 jobs while pulling unemployment to a two-year-low 6.4%, with finance, insurance and real estate up 18,000. Markets are pricing a high probability of a seventh consecutive hold at 2.25% (prime 4.45%) — seventh counted from the October 29, 2025 cut that remains the Bank's most recent move, through the six decisions since (December 10, January 28, March 18, April 29, June 10 and July 15); outlets counting only the 2026 calendar year will call the same decision the sixth. On the US side, Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending Thursday, August 27 is confirmed at a 6.66% 30-year fixed and a 5.98% 15-year fixed, up from 6.65% and 5.95% and ending a two-week decline; Chief Economist Sam Khater described rates as having “changed little this week.” Because the PMMS prints only on Thursdays, the August 27 survey is the standing US reference through the weekend. The best-broker insured Canadian 5-year fixed stays anchored near 4.04% off a cycle-low 5-year Government of Canada benchmark yield — a reminder that Canadian fixed rates are priced off those bond yields, not the Bank's overnight rate, so the stronger GDP print is the number to watch for fixed pricing, not the September 2 announcement itself. On the Canadian side July is already complete on both the demand and supply sides. CREA's July 2026 National Resale Statistics read soft-but-stabilizing: the national average sale price was $674,819, up 0.2% year-over-year and essentially flat; seasonally adjusted sales rose 0.5% month-over-month for a third straight modest gain; the MLS Home Price Index edged up 0.1% month-over-month while sitting 3.3% below a year ago; new listings fell 1.6%; and the national sales-to-new-listings ratio was 51.3%, squarely inside CREA's balanced 45–65% band. CMHC's July housing starts came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 229,074 units, down 5% from June's revised 240,773-unit pace, with the smoother six-month moving average essentially flat at 247,377 units and CMHC Deputy Chief Economist Tania Bourassa-Ochoa noting new construction is “continuing to moderate.” The US Census Bureau and HUD released July New Residential Construction on August 18: privately-owned housing starts ran at a 1,239,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, down 12.4% from June's revised 1,415,000 and down 13.5% year-over-year, with single-family starts at 808,000, even as building permits — the forward-looking gauge — rose 5.0% to a 1,443,000 rate, hinting the pullback in groundbreaking may be more pause than trend. The National Association of Realtors' July existing-home sales, released August 11, ran at a 4.06-million seasonally adjusted annual rate, down 1.7% month-over-month but up 0.7% year-over-year, with the median price at $434,100 (up 2.0% year-over-year, a 37th straight year-over-year gain), an average 30-year rate of 6.54% and 4.6 months of supply — a market tight on inventory and firm on price but soft on volume, a useful contrast to Canada's rebalancing. The practical read heading into decision week: if you are weighing a purchase, renewal, or refinance, decide on your own numbers rather than on the announcement. The Maple Syrup Money mortgage payment, affordability and stress-test, and rent-vs-buy calculators at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential turn these rate and price levels into a real monthly number, and the commercial and investing calculators (cap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCR, cash flow analyzer) at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial do the same for income property. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

Canada's economy grew considerably more than the Bank of Canada had penciled in. Statistics Canada reported Friday that real gross domestic product rose 0.8% in the second quarter of 2026 — an annualized 3.3%, the fastest quarterly pace since early 2023 and comfortably above the roughly 2.5% the Bank had projected for the quarter. The agency also revised the first quarter up, from 0.0% to 0.1% on a quarterly basis, which settles the recession question that had hung over the spring: two consecutive quarters of contraction never happened. Exports did most of the work, rising 3.6% — the largest increase since the first quarter of 2023 — led by a 27.0% surge in motor vehicle exports as auto production re-accelerated after faltering over the previous six months, with intermediate metals, energy products and industrial machinery also contributing. Business capital investment snapped a long losing streak: investment in engineering structures rose 2.3%, and machinery and equipment reached its highest level since the second quarter of 2024, boosted by a 16.7% jump in computer equipment imports tied to data centre construction. Household spending rose 0.8%, with more going to mutual funds and other investment services, passenger vehicles and rent, while gasoline and food purchases fell on elevated prices. On a per-capita basis real GDP rose 1.0%, as Canada's population declined for a third consecutive quarter; the household saving rate was 3.7% and disposable income rose 2.1%. What this means for the September 2 rate decision is that a strong quarter makes the case for another cut harder, not easier. Add July's CPI at 3.0% year-over-year — a full point above target — and a July jobs report that added 75,000 positions and pulled unemployment to a two-year-low 6.4%, and there is little on paper forcing the Bank's hand; markets are pricing a high probability of another hold at 2.25% (prime 4.45%), which would be the seventh consecutive one. For Canadian borrowers the transmission mechanism matters: fixed mortgage rates are priced off Government of Canada bond yields, not the Bank's overnight rate, so a stronger-than-expected economy tends to push those yields — and fixed pricing — up rather than down. Only variable rates track the policy rate directly. The best-broker insured 5-year fixed is still anchored near 4.04%. On the US side, Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending August 27 put the 30-year fixed at 6.66%, up from 6.65%, and the 15-year at 5.98%, up from 5.95%, ending a two-week decline; both sit above their year-ago levels of 6.56% and 5.69%. Chief Economist Sam Khater said rates “changed little this week averaging 6.66%” and that “the economy remains resilient, demonstrated by steady consumer spending and rising household incomes.” If you are modelling a purchase, renewal, or refinance ahead of the September 2 decision, run the numbers before you act: the Maple Syrup Money mortgage payment, affordability and stress-test, and rent-vs-buy calculators at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential turn these rate and price levels into a real monthly payment. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

The second consecutive weekly decline in American mortgage rates is now confirmed — and it widens, rather than narrows, the case for Canadian fixed financing. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending Thursday, August 20 printed the US 30-year fixed at 6.65% and the 15-year fixed at 5.95%, down from the prior week's 6.67% and 5.96%. (The survey posts around noon Eastern; while it was pending, the confirmed August 13 figures — 6.67% and 5.96%, the first weekly drop in six weeks — remained the standing reference, with daily-tracker feeds drifting a touch lower into the print.) Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater noted the 30-year “declined this week averaging 6.65%” and that borrowers “can potentially save thousands by shopping around for the best mortgage rate” — both products still sit above where they were a year ago (30-year 6.58%, 15-year 5.69% in August 2025). There is no Friday PMMS print, so the August 20 survey is the standing US reference until the following Thursday. Canadian fixed mortgage rates are priced off Government of Canada bond yields, not the Bank's overnight rate, so this week's small US decline does not move the Canadian number directly. The best-broker insured 5-year fixed is anchored near 4.04% off a cycle-low 5-year Government of Canada benchmark yield that sits well below the US 30-year — roughly 263 basis points, the widest cross-border gap of the cycle and the reason Canadian borrowers face materially lower fixed costs than their US counterparts right now. The Canadian week itself was a follow-through week, not a data week: neither Thursday August 20 nor Friday August 21 carried a scheduled domestic primary-source housing or rates release, because July's picture was already complete on both sides. CREA's July 2026 National Resale Statistics read soft-but-stabilizing: the national average sale price was $674,819, up 0.2% year-over-year and essentially flat; seasonally adjusted sales rose 0.5% month-over-month for a third straight modest gain; the MLS Home Price Index edged up 0.1% month-over-month while sitting 3.3% below a year ago; new listings fell 1.6%; and the national sales-to-new-listings ratio was 51.3%, squarely inside CREA's balanced 45–65% band. CMHC's July housing starts came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 229,074 units, down 5% from June's revised 240,773-unit pace, with the smoother six-month moving average essentially flat at 247,377 units and CMHC Deputy Chief Economist Tania Bourassa-Ochoa noting new construction is “continuing to moderate.” The US Census Bureau and HUD released July New Residential Construction on August 18: privately-owned housing starts ran at a 1,239,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, down 12.4% from June's revised 1,415,000 and down 13.5% year-over-year, with single-family starts at 808,000, even as building permits — the forward-looking gauge — rose 5.0% to a 1,443,000 rate, hinting the pullback in groundbreaking may be more pause than trend. For the macro backdrop, the July CPI at 3.0% year-over-year and the stronger-than-expected July jobs report remain the standing catalysts into the next Bank of Canada decision on September 2; the Bank is holding its policy rate at 2.25% (prime 4.45%) after its July 15 sixth-consecutive hold. If you are weighing a purchase, renewal, or refinance, model the actual payment before you act: the Maple Syrup Money mortgage payment, affordability and stress-test, and rent-vs-buy calculators at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential turn these rate and price levels into a real monthly number, and the commercial and investing calculators (cap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCR, cash flow analyzer) at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial do the same for income property. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

The one figure left open at Tuesday's close is now confirmed, and it completes July's picture on the supply side of the ledger. CMHC's July housing starts came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 229,074 units, down 5% from June's revised 240,773-unit pace, with the smoother six-month moving average essentially flat at 247,377 units and CMHC Deputy Chief Economist Tania Bourassa-Ochoa noting new construction is “continuing to moderate.” Beneath the national rate, the regional split was wide: actual starts in centres of 10,000 or more population fell to 18,834 units, down 19% from 23,155 a year earlier, and among the three largest metros Montreal's actual starts rose 3% year-over-year on stronger multi-unit activity while Vancouver fell 42% and Toronto fell 10% on softer multi-unit and single-detached construction. Bourassa-Ochoa framed the read plainly: “July's results show that housing starts are continuing to moderate and new home construction in Canada is evolving as per CMHC's recent Housing Market Outlook Summer Update.” With this in hand the week's domestic picture is complete on both sides. CREA's July 2026 National Resale Statistics read soft-but-stabilizing: the national average sale price was $674,819, up 0.2% year-over-year and essentially flat; seasonally adjusted sales rose 0.5% month-over-month for a third straight modest gain; the MLS Home Price Index edged up 0.1% month-over-month while sitting 3.3% below a year ago; new listings fell 1.6%; and the national sales-to-new-listings ratio was 51.3%, squarely inside CREA's balanced 45–65% band. Demand is stabilizing; supply is moderating — a market slowly rebalancing rather than correcting sharply or reheating. South of the border the supply read filled in the day before. The US Census Bureau and HUD released July New Residential Construction on August 18: privately-owned housing starts ran at a 1,239,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, down 12.4% from June's revised 1,415,000 and down 13.5% year-over-year, with single-family starts at 808,000, even as building permits — the forward-looking gauge — rose 5.0% to a 1,443,000 rate, hinting the pullback in groundbreaking may be more pause than trend. The standing US mortgage reference remains Freddie Mac's survey for the week ending Thursday, August 13 — the 30-year fixed eased to 6.67% and the 15-year to 5.96%, the first weekly decline in six weeks, though both sit above their year-ago readings; because the PMMS prints only on Thursdays, the next US update is the Thursday, August 20 survey. The National Association of Realtors' July existing-home sales, released August 11, ran at a 4.06-million seasonally adjusted annual rate, down 1.7% month-over-month but up 0.7% year-over-year, with the median price at $434,100 (up 2.0% year-over-year, a 37th straight year-over-year gain), an average 30-year rate of 6.54% and 4.6 months of supply — a market tight on inventory and firm on price but soft on volume, a useful contrast to Canada's rebalancing. On the Canadian macro side, two standing catalysts frame the rate path into fall: Statistics Canada's July Consumer Price Index (released August 17) rose 3.0% year-over-year, up from 2.8% in June, with the all-items-excluding-gasoline measure holding at 2.2% for a third straight month; and the July Labour Force Survey showed employment up 75,000 and unemployment down to 6.4%, a two-year low, with finance, insurance and real estate adding 18,000. Together a firmer jobs market and a slight reacceleration in headline inflation trim the odds of a further near-term rate cut. The rate read-through, stated correctly: Canadian fixed mortgage rates are priced off Government of Canada bond yields — not the Bank of Canada overnight rate — so firmer inflation and jobs data push bond yields up at the margin and work against lower fixed pricing; only variable-rate mortgages move directly with the Bank's overnight rate, which the Bank is holding at 2.25% (prime 4.45%), leaving the best-broker insured 5-year fixed anchored near 4.04%. If you are weighing a purchase, renewal, or refinance, model the actual payment before you act: the Maple Syrup Money mortgage payment, affordability and stress-test, and rent-vs-buy calculators at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential turn these rate and price levels into a real monthly number, and the commercial and investing calculators (cap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCR, cash flow analyzer) at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial do the same for income property. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

The week's marquee data day delivered, and the verdict on Canadian resale housing is that it is no longer falling — it is rebalancing. CREA's July 2026 National Resale Statistics are confirmed. The national average sale price came in at $674,819, up 0.2% year-over-year, essentially flat; actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales were 43,578, down 5.3% year-over-year, but on a seasonally adjusted basis sales rose 0.5% month-over-month versus June — the third straight modest monthly gain. The MLS Home Price Index, CREA's like-for-like price gauge, edged up 0.1% month-over-month while sitting 3.3% below a year ago, confirming prices are stable at the margin even as they remain softer than in 2025. New listings fell 1.6% month-over-month, a third consecutive monthly drop, while total inventory stood at 205,388 units — up 0.6% year-over-year and roughly 1.5% above the long-term average — and the national sales-to-new-listings ratio was 51.3%, squarely inside CREA's balanced band of 45–65%. Regionally the split held: Ontario and British Columbia posted year-over-year price declines, while all other regions gained. CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart summed it up: “July's housing data was a carbon copy of the June numbers, with home sales edging up a little further, listings down, and prices remaining stable... markets across the country are generally moving back towards balance.” This July read supersedes the June figures this page had carried ($696,078 national average, a flat Home Price Index, 4.8 months of inventory). The takeaway is a market that is neither correcting sharply nor reheating, but slowly rebalancing as tighter listings meet gently firmer sales. The day's second domestic release, CMHC's July 2026 housing starts, came out the same morning at 8:15 AM ET but had not yet propagated to primary and newswire sources when this entry was first written, so no July starts figure was cited here at the time; the confirmed number — a 229,074-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate — landed the following day and is covered in its own report. For reference, the prior confirmed print was June's 238,971-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate (down 6% month-over-month), with the smoother six-month trend at 248,123 units (down 2.8%), and CMHC's Summer 2026 mid-year update frames full-year 2026 starts near 241,400 versus 259,028 in 2025. On the US side there was no fresh real-estate print: the standing reference remained Freddie Mac's confirmed survey for the week ending Thursday, August 13 — the 30-year fixed at 6.67% and the 15-year at 5.96%, the first weekly decline in six weeks, both still above the year-ago 6.58% and 5.71%; because the PMMS prints only on Thursdays, the next US update was the August 20 survey. The National Association of Realtors' July existing-home sales, released August 11, ran at a 4.06-million seasonally adjusted annual rate, down 1.7% month-over-month but up 0.7% year-over-year, with the median price at $434,100 (up 2.0% year-over-year, a 37th straight year-over-year gain), an average 30-year rate of 6.54% and 4.6 months of supply — a market tight on inventory and firm on price but soft on volume, a useful contrast to Canada's rebalancing. On the Canadian macro side the standing catalyst was the July Labour Force Survey: employment up 75,000 and unemployment down to 6.4%, the lowest since July 2024, with finance, insurance and real estate adding 18,000 — the sector most directly tied to mortgage and transaction activity. A firmer labour market supports household income and mortgage-qualification math into the fall while trimming the odds of a further near-term rate cut. The Bank of Canada remains on hold at 2.25% (prime 4.45%), and the best-broker insured 5-year fixed is anchored near 4.04% off the cycle-low 5-year Government of Canada benchmark. If you are weighing a purchase, renewal, or refinance, model the actual payment before you act: the Maple Syrup Money mortgage payment, affordability and stress-test, and rent-vs-buy calculators at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential turn these rate and price levels into a real monthly number, and the commercial and investing calculators (cap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCR, cash flow analyzer) at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial do the same for income property. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

The weekend of August 15–16 was data-quiet by design — no scheduled domestic or US primary-source housing or rates release, Canadian exchanges and bond desks closed — but Monday, August 17 put a real number back on the board, and it pointed the wrong way for anyone hoping for more rate relief. Statistics Canada's July Consumer Price Index rose 3.0% year-over-year, up from 2.8% in June, with the all-items-excluding-gasoline measure holding at 2.2% for a third straight month. Headline inflation reaccelerating into the September 2 Bank of Canada decision, alongside a labour market that beat expectations, trims the odds of a further near-term cut. Monday was otherwise a positioning day: CMHC's July housing starts and CREA's July national resale statistics were both due together the next morning, Tuesday, August 18 — the first hard read on how the summer market absorbed July's jobs beat, and the first update to the CMHC and CREA numbers this page had carried through the quiet stretch. Neither number was out yet, so the useful move was to get a pre-approval, renewal, or rental underwriting ready before the data moved. The standing US reference was the confirmed Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending Thursday, August 13: the 30-year fixed eased to 6.67% from 6.69% and the 15-year to 5.96% from 6.01% — the first weekly decline in six weeks, though still above the year-ago readings of 6.58% and 5.71%. Because the PMMS prints only on Thursdays, the next US update was the August 20 survey; nothing fresh crossed before then. On the Canadian side the standing catalyst remained the July Labour Force Survey — employment up 75,000 (+0.4%) and unemployment at 6.4%, the lowest since July 2024, with finance, insurance and real estate adding 18,000 (+1.2%), against a Reuters poll that had expected roughly 15,000 jobs and 6.5%. The Bank of Canada remains on hold at 2.25% (prime 4.45%) and the best-broker insured 5-year fixed is anchored near 4.04% off the cycle-low 5-year Government of Canada benchmark. The structural frame behind all of it: CMHC's Summer 2026 mid-year update trims the full year (MLS average price ~$675,200 versus $679,543 in 2025, sales ~457,200 versus 470,314, housing starts ~241,400 versus 259,028), and CREA's June read still shows a soft-but-stable resale market ($696,078 national average, a flat MLS Home Price Index, 4.8 months of inventory, sales +0.5% month-over-month). Both were about to be superseded by Tuesday's releases. If you are weighing a purchase, renewal, or refinance, model the actual payment before you act: the Maple Syrup Money mortgage payment, affordability and stress-test, and rent-vs-buy calculators at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential turn these rate and price levels into a real monthly number, and the commercial and investing calculators (cap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCR, cash flow analyzer) at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial do the same for income property. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

For six straight weeks the American 30-year fixed had gone one direction. This week it stopped. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending Thursday, August 13, 2026 cut the 30-year fixed to 6.67% from the prior week's 6.69% and the 15-year fixed to 5.96% from 6.01% — the first weekly decline in six weeks, and still above the year-ago readings of 6.58% and 5.71%. That confirmed print replaced the August 6 survey (30-year 6.69%, 15-year 6.01%) as the standing US benchmark. (The survey posts around midday Eastern on Thursdays; while it was pending, the disciplined read was not to front-run it — daily lender-quote averages were drifting slightly on Thursday morning, but a daily tracker is not the weekly PMMS, and the August 6 print remained the only citable benchmark until the new survey crossed.) The move is small and the level remains historically elevated, so the practical read is a marginal easing, not a turn; Freddie Mac's own economist framed rates as relatively stable while noting affordability has improved from a year ago and that buyers are responding to even modest rate movement with more purchase and refinance activity. On the Canadian side nothing moved: the Bank of Canada remains on hold at 2.25% (prime 4.45%) after its July 15 sixth-consecutive decision, with the next decision September 2, and Canadian fixed mortgage rates are priced off Government of Canada bond yields, not the Bank of Canada overnight rate — only variable-rate mortgages track the Bank directly — so with the 5-year Government of Canada benchmark holding its cycle-low band, the best-broker insured 5-year fixed stays anchored near 4.04%, the number a first-time buyer or 2026 renewer is being quoted. The standing domestic catalyst was still the July Labour Force Survey — employment up 75,000 (+0.4%) and unemployment down a tenth to 6.4%, the lowest since July 2024, with the employment rate at 60.9% — a decisive beat of the pre-release Reuters poll that had expected roughly 15,000 jobs and the rate holding at 6.5%. The calendar then turned to the following Tuesday, August 18, when CMHC's July housing starts and CREA's July national resale statistics were both due — the first hard read on how the summer market absorbed the jobs beat. The structural frame behind all of it: CMHC's Summer 2026 mid-year update trims the full year (MLS average price ~$675,200 versus $679,543 in 2025, sales ~457,200 versus 470,314, housing starts ~241,400 versus 259,028), and CREA's June read still shows a soft-but-stable resale market ($696,078 national average, a flat MLS Home Price Index, 4.8 months of inventory, sales +0.5% month-over-month). If you are weighing a purchase, renewal, or refinance, model the actual payment before you act: the Maple Syrup Money mortgage payment, affordability and stress-test, and rent-vs-buy calculators at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential turn these rate and price levels into a real monthly number, and the commercial and investing calculators (cap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCR, cash flow analyzer) at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial do the same for income property. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

Rate Watch, week of August 10: Monday August 10, Tuesday August 11 and Wednesday August 12 all passed without a scheduled Canadian or US primary-source housing or rates release, so the story through midweek was the setup carried over from the jobs beat rather than any new domestic data point. The one release that did cross was American: the National Association of Realtors published July existing-home sales on Tuesday, August 11. The National Association of Realtors' July existing-home sales, released August 11, ran at a 4.06-million seasonally adjusted annual rate, down 1.7% month-over-month but up 0.7% year-over-year, with the median price at $434,100 (up 2.0% year-over-year, a 37th straight year-over-year gain), an average 30-year rate of 6.54% and 4.6 months of supply — a market tight on inventory and firm on price but soft on volume, a useful contrast to Canada's rebalancing. The standing US mortgage benchmark held unchanged into the new week — Thursday August 6's confirmed Freddie Mac survey at a 2026-high 6.69% on the 30-year fixed (up three basis points from 6.66% the prior week) and 6.01% on the 15-year, a cross-border gap of roughly 265 basis points. The discipline that goes with that: the August 6 print was the only citable US mortgage benchmark until the August 13 survey landed. Daily lender-quote trackers are not the weekly PMMS, and this page carries the weekly survey because it is the apples-to-apples measure. The domestic catalyst carrying the week was July's Labour Force Survey. Statistics Canada's July 2026 Labour Force Survey showed employment up 75,000 (+0.4%) and the national unemployment rate falling to 6.4%, down a tenth from June's 6.5% and the lowest reading since July 2024, with the employment rate at 60.9%. The composition matters for housing: gains were led by wholesale and retail trade (+21,000), professional, scientific and technical services (+17,000) and — most directly relevant — finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing (+18,000, +1.2%), the sector that most closely tracks mortgage and transaction activity. A firmer labour market supports purchase and rental demand into the fall while trimming the odds of a further near-term rate cut. The Bank of Canada remains on hold at 2.25% (prime 4.45%) with its next decision September 2, and the best-broker insured 5-year fixed is anchored near 4.04% off the cycle-low 5-year Government of Canada benchmark. The calendar then turned to the following week's cluster: CMHC's July housing starts and CREA's July national resale statistics both due Tuesday, August 18 — the first hard read on how the summer market absorbed the jobs beat — with Freddie Mac's next survey on Thursday, August 13. The structural frame behind all of it: CMHC's Summer 2026 mid-year update trims the full year (MLS average price ~$675,200 versus $679,543 in 2025, sales ~457,200 versus 470,314, housing starts ~241,400 versus 259,028), and CREA's June read still shows a soft-but-stable resale market ($696,078 national average, a flat MLS Home Price Index, 4.8 months of inventory, sales +0.5% month-over-month). If you are weighing a purchase, renewal, or refinance, model the actual payment before you act: the Maple Syrup Money mortgage payment, affordability and stress-test, and rent-vs-buy calculators at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential turn these rate and price levels into a real monthly number, and the commercial and investing calculators (cap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCR, cash flow analyzer) at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial do the same for income property. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

The number that defined the week landed Friday morning at 8:30 ET, and it was not the number economists had modelled. A Reuters poll had expected roughly 15,000 jobs added in July — after June's +18,200 — with the national unemployment rate holding at 6.5%. Statistics Canada's July 2026 Labour Force Survey showed employment up 75,000 (+0.4%) and the national unemployment rate falling to 6.4%, down a tenth from June's 6.5% and the lowest reading since July 2024, with the employment rate at 60.9%. The composition matters for housing: gains were led by wholesale and retail trade (+21,000), professional, scientific and technical services (+17,000) and — most directly relevant — finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing (+18,000, +1.2%), the sector that most closely tracks mortgage and transaction activity. That is a decisive beat: the labour market ran materially hotter than forecast, and it did so while fresh US tariff threats hung over Canadian employers, which is part of what made the print worth watching in the first place. A firmer labour market keeps household income and mortgage-qualification math stable, supporting purchase and rental demand into the fall — while trimming the odds of a further Bank of Canada cut at the September 2 decision. The rate read-through, stated correctly: Canadian fixed mortgage rates are priced off Government of Canada bond yields, not the Bank of Canada overnight rate, so a stronger jobs print firms bond yields at the margin and works against lower fixed pricing; only variable-rate mortgages move directly with the Bank's overnight rate. For now that benchmark is still holding its cycle-low band and the best-broker insured Canadian 5-year fixed remains anchored near 4.04%. The Bank itself stays on hold at 2.25% (prime 4.45%) after its July 15 sixth-consecutive decision, so nothing moves until at least September 2. Across the border the benchmark stayed elevated and confirmed through the weekend: Thursday's Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending August 6 put the 30-year fixed at a fresh 2026 high of 6.69% (up three basis points from 6.66%) and the 15-year at 6.01%, leaving a cross-border gap of roughly 265 basis points — a reminder of how much cheaper insured Canadian fixed financing remains than the US equivalent. The next US print lands Thursday, August 13, and no primary Canadian release is scheduled before it; the weekend of August 8–9 passed with no scheduled Canadian or US release at all. The structural frame behind all of it: CMHC's Summer 2026 mid-year update trims the full year (MLS average price ~$675,200 versus $679,543 in 2025, sales ~457,200 versus 470,314, housing starts ~241,400 versus 259,028), and CREA's June read still shows a soft-but-stable resale market ($696,078 national average, a flat MLS Home Price Index, 4.8 months of inventory, sales +0.5% month-over-month). The practical read: treat the confirmed July jobs beat and 6.4% unemployment as a modest tailwind for housing demand and a mild headwind against further near-term rate relief. If you are weighing a purchase, renewal, or refinance, model the actual payment before you act: the Maple Syrup Money mortgage payment, affordability and stress-test, and rent-vs-buy calculators at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential turn these rate and price levels into a real monthly number, and the commercial and investing calculators (cap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCR, cash flow analyzer) at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial do the same for income property. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

Thursday's Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey was the only scheduled housing-rates catalyst of the week, and it moved the US benchmark up rather than down. The survey for the week ending August 6 lifted the 30-year fixed to 6.69%, up three basis points from 6.66% the prior week — a fresh 2026 high, and the first time in roughly ten months the benchmark has topped its year-ago level near 6.63% — while the 15-year fixed eased to 6.01% from 6.04%. (Freddie Mac posts the survey Thursday morning; at the time this page was first built the fresh print had not yet crossed the wire, so the July 30 survey — 30-year near 6.66%, 15-year near 6.04% — stood as the reference until the new number landed.) Measured against the best-broker insured Canadian 5-year fixed anchored near 4.04%, that is a cross-border mortgage gap of roughly 265 basis points — the spread that keeps Canadian fixed financing structurally cheaper for newcomers weighing the two markets. The mechanism matters: Canadian fixed mortgage rates are priced off Government of Canada bond yields, not the Bank of Canada overnight rate — only variable-rate mortgages track the Bank directly — so with the 5-year Government of Canada benchmark holding its cycle-low band, the best-broker insured 5-year fixed stays anchored near 4.04%, the number a first-time buyer or 2026 renewer is being quoted. On the policy side nothing changed: the Bank of Canada stays on hold at 2.25% (prime 4.45%) after its July 15 sixth-consecutive decision, with the next decision September 2, so variable-rate and renewal math is unchanged. The structural frame behind all of it: CMHC's Summer 2026 mid-year update trims the full year (MLS average price ~$675,200 versus $679,543 in 2025, sales ~457,200 versus 470,314, housing starts ~241,400 versus 259,028), and CREA's June read still shows a soft-but-stable resale market ($696,078 national average, a flat MLS Home Price Index, 4.8 months of inventory, sales +0.5% month-over-month). The practical read for real-estate decision-makers: re-measure the gap against Canada's ~4.04% now that the US benchmark has been confirmed higher, and use the window to lock a pre-approval, model a renewal, or stress-test a rental ahead of the September 2 Bank of Canada decision. If you are weighing a purchase, renewal, or refinance, model the actual payment before you act: the Maple Syrup Money mortgage payment, affordability and stress-test, and rent-vs-buy calculators at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential turn these rate and price levels into a real monthly number, and the commercial and investing calculators (cap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCR, cash flow analyzer) at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial do the same for income property. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

August opened the way summer months usually do in Canadian real estate — with a closed exchange and an empty release calendar. Rate Watch, week of August 1: Saturday August 1 and Sunday August 2 brought no Canadian or US primary-source housing or rates release; Monday August 3 was the Civic Holiday itself, with Canadian exchanges and bond desks closed; Tuesday August 4 reopened trading with nothing new on the wire; and Wednesday August 5, the last full session before the week's one scheduled catalyst, passed data-quiet as well. Five days, zero prints — which is exactly why July's setup was still the reference point for anyone modelling a purchase or renewal. The Bank of Canada remains on hold at 2.25% (prime 4.45%) after its July 15 sixth-consecutive decision, and the next move is not until September 2, so variable-rate and renewal math did not shift at any point this week. The mechanism matters: Canadian fixed mortgage rates are priced off Government of Canada bond yields, not the Bank of Canada overnight rate — only variable-rate mortgages track the Bank directly — so with the 5-year Government of Canada benchmark holding its cycle-low band, the best-broker insured 5-year fixed stays anchored near 4.04%, the number a first-time buyer or 2026 renewer is being quoted. Across the border, Freddie Mac's Thursday July 30 Primary Mortgage Market Survey left the US 30-year fixed at a fresh 2026 high near 6.66% and the 15-year near 6.04% — a cross-border mortgage gap of roughly 262 basis points, the spread that keeps Canadian fixed financing structurally cheaper for newcomers weighing the two markets. The structural frame behind all of it: CMHC's Summer 2026 mid-year update trims the full year (MLS average price ~$675,200 versus $679,543 in 2025, sales ~457,200 versus 470,314, housing starts ~241,400 versus 259,028), and CREA's June read still shows a soft-but-stable resale market ($696,078 national average, a flat MLS Home Price Index, 4.8 months of inventory, sales +0.5% month-over-month). The practical read: nothing on this week's calendar forced a rate move, so the window to lock a pre-approval, model a renewal, or stress-test a rental against the ~4.04% Canadian and ~6.66% US benchmarks stayed open into the next two catalysts — the Thursday August 6 Freddie Mac survey and the September 2 Bank of Canada decision. If you are weighing a purchase, renewal, or refinance, model the actual payment before you act: the Maple Syrup Money mortgage payment, affordability and stress-test, and rent-vs-buy calculators at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential turn these rate and price levels into a real monthly number, and the commercial and investing calculators (cap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCR, cash flow analyzer) at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial do the same for income property. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.