July 2026.

Rate Watch, week of July 27, continued: Wednesday July 29 passed data-quiet with no fresh Canadian primary-source release and the US housing calendar sitting between catalysts. Thursday July 30 carried the week's one rate catalyst, and it closed the month at an extreme. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey — released Thursday July 30, not July 31 as some earlier sessions framed it, because the survey publishes on Thursdays — lifted the US 30-year fixed to a fresh 2026 high of 6.66% from 6.58%, with the 15-year at 6.04% from 5.96%. A year earlier the 30-year sat at 6.72%, so the American benchmark spent 2026 climbing back toward where it started. Against a Canadian best broker insured 5-year fixed still near 4.04%, that widened the cross-border mortgage gap to roughly 262 basis points — the widest point of the year, and up from 239 basis points at the start of July. In a single month the cost advantage of financing in Canada rather than the United States grew by 23 basis points without the Canadian rate moving at all. Why it matters: the whole month's American data pushed the same direction. Rates rose four of five weeks to a 2026 high, builder confidence stayed at 34 for a fifteenth straight month below 40, existing-home sales fell 2.4% to a 4.09-million pace, new-home supply reached 9.3 months, and home-price growth flattened to 0.8% year over year. A Canadian investor who modelled a US rental on spring assumptions was left looking at higher carry, no appreciation, and more competing supply — three variables moving the wrong way at once. The Canadian backdrop closed the month unchanged. The Bank of Canada held at 2.25% (prime 4.45%) after its July 15 sixth-consecutive decision, with no fresh domestic primary-source release on July 31 and the next decision not until September 2. CMHC's Summer 2026 mid-year update had the 2026 MLS average price near $675,200, sales near 457,200 and starts near 241,400, while CREA's June read showed a $696,078 national average with the MLS Home Price Index flat month over month and 4.8 months of inventory. Six weeks of Canadian data silence followed. That is time to model rather than react — run the renewal and purchase math at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential, and if a US property is on the table, re-underwrite it at a 6.66% cost of funds at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial before September. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

Rate Watch, week of July 27: Sunday July 26 and Monday July 27 brought no fresh primary-source release on either side of the border, leaving the week's first housing catalyst to Tuesday morning, when the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller and FHFA House Price Index May reports published their US home-price readings. Both are backward-looking by construction — the May reference month lands at the end of July — but together they are the cleanest gauge of where American home values actually sat this spring, and the confirmed April anchors were already flat: the Case-Shiller national index up 0.8% year over year — barely above March's 0.7% and well below inflation, meaning real US home prices were still falling — and the FHFA index down 0.1% month over month and up 2.0% year over year. Why it matters: a national index growing at 0.8% a year is not appreciating in any sense a buyer can spend. After inflation it is going backwards. For a Canadian underwriting a US rental, that removes appreciation from the return stack entirely and leaves the deal standing on cash flow alone — a much harder test at a 6.58% cost of funds than at the rates that made US rentals attractive three years ago. Nothing in the rate backdrop softened that. The Bank of Canada held at 2.25% since its July 15 sixth-consecutive decision (prime 4.45%, best broker insured 5-year fixed near 4.04%, next decision September 2). CMHC's Summer 2026 mid-year downgrade had the 2026 MLS average price near $675,200, sales near 457,200 and starts near 241,400, against CREA's June read of a $696,078 national average with the MLS Home Price Index flat month over month and 4.8 months of inventory. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed stood at a fresh 2026 high of 6.58% versus the roughly 4.04% Canadian benchmark, a cross-border mortgage gap near 254 basis points, with the next survey due Thursday July 30. The honest read of both countries' July data is symmetry: Canadian prices have stopped falling and American prices have stopped rising, and neither market is paying an owner to wait. That makes cash flow, not appreciation, the whole underwriting question on either side of the border. Test it at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial, and run the Canadian payment comparison at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

Friday's Census Bureau report closed the last open number in the June US housing picture, and Freddie Mac pushed rates higher on the way. New single-family home sales ran at a 628,000 annual rate in June, up 1.6% from May's upward-revised 618,000 but down 5.6% year over year from 665,000. May's first read had been a weaker 580,000 at a $424,900 median, so the revision flattered June's monthly comparison less than the raw gain suggests. The median new-home price was $398,300 — down 3.3% from May's $412,000 and 2.7% below a year earlier — with months' supply at 9.3, easing from 9.4, and 485,000 homes for sale. Nine months of supply is the number to sit with. A balanced new-home market runs closer to six; 9.3 months with 485,000 homes standing means builders are carrying inventory they cannot move at current rates, which is the same story the NAHB confidence reading of 34 had been telling for fifteen straight months. Set against the rest of the June slate — housing starts at a 1.427-million rate, existing-home sales at a 4.09-million pace with a $440,600 median and 4.6 months of supply — the American market that emerges is one where supply is arriving and buyers are not. And financing got worse during the week, not better: Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey lifted the 30-year fixed to a fresh 2026 high of 6.58% from 6.55% the prior week, with the 15-year at 5.96% against 6.74% a year earlier. For Canadians the arithmetic is the point. At 6.58% American against a best broker insured Canadian 5-year fixed near 4.04%, the cross-border mortgage gap widened to roughly 254 basis points. A US rental bought on the spring's rate assumptions no longer carries the way the spreadsheet said it would. The Canadian side stayed quiet through Saturday July 25, with the Bank of Canada holding at 2.25% since its July 15 sixth-consecutive decision (prime 4.45%, next decision September 2) and the week's CMHC Summer 2026 mid-year downgrade — a 2026 MLS average price near $675,200, sales near 457,200 and starts near 241,400 — reinforcing CREA's June read of a $696,078 national average, an MLS Home Price Index flat month over month and 4.8 months of inventory. Before you commit to a US deal at these rates, re-run cap rate, cash-on-cash and DSCR at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial against a 6.58% cost of funds, and compare the Canadian alternative at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

Rate Watch, week of July 20: Monday July 20, Tuesday July 21 and Wednesday July 22 each passed without a fresh Canadian primary-source release, with both North American housing desks reopening into a deliberately quiet week. Then the Canadian file got its freshest read of the month, and it was a downgrade. CMHC's Summer 2026 Mid-Year Housing Market Outlook, published July 22, cut the agency's national numbers across the board. It now sees the MLS average price slipping to about $675,200 in 2026, down from $679,543 in 2025; home sales easing to roughly 457,200 transactions from 470,314; and housing starts falling to near 241,400 units from 259,028. The agency's stated reasons are economic uncertainty, slower population growth, high borrowing costs and modest income growth keeping demand subdued, with a gradual recovery beginning from 2027. Its accompanying release put it more bluntly: prices decline in 2026 before modest growth in 2027 and 2028, with Ontario and British Columbia facing continued affordability pressure. Why it matters, and where it cuts against the July 15 data: CREA's June package showed the MLS Home Price Index flat month over month for the first time since January 2025 and inventory at its 2026 low. CMHC's forecast says the year still ends below 2025. Both can be true — a market can stop falling month to month and still finish the year down — but a reader deciding whether to buy now or wait should understand that the country's housing agency is not forecasting a 2026 recovery. It is forecasting a bottom, then a wait. The rate backdrop did not move. The Bank of Canada held at 2.25% (prime 4.45%) after its July 15 sixth-consecutive decision, with the best broker insured 5-year fixed near 4.04% and the next decision not until September 2. South of the border Freddie Mac's weekly survey published Thursday against a 30-year fixed that had finished the prior week at a fresh 2026 high of 6.55% with the 15-year at 5.93%, leaving the cross-border mortgage gap near 251 basis points, and the Census Bureau's June new-home sales report followed Friday. If CMHC's numbers change your timeline, change your model rather than your mood: run the purchase against a flat-price 2026 and a 2027 recovery at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential, and stress the rental case at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

Census and HUD's June New Residential Construction report is the kind of number that looks like a boom in the headline and reads like a warning underneath. Housing starts rebounded 19.0% month over month to a 1.427-million annual rate, up 3.5% from a year earlier. Almost all of it came from one place: multifamily starts of 513,000 units. Single-family starts actually slipped 0.2% to 895,000. Building permits — the forward-looking half of the release, because a permit is a decision to build later — fell 3.0% to 1.367 million, and single-family authorizations came in at 871,000, their lowest level since August 2025. Completions ran at 1.392 million. Why it matters: starts tell you what got dug this month; permits tell you what will get dug next year. A 19% headline rebound built entirely on apartment construction, sitting on top of the weakest single-family permit count in eleven months, describes a market where the detached-house pipeline is thinning while rental supply expands. For a cross-border investor that is a rent-side signal as much as a price-side one — more apartment completions ahead means more competition for tenants in the metros absorbing them. It landed into an unforgiving rate backdrop. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed had just set a fresh 2026 high of 6.55%, with the 15-year at 5.93%; the NAHB/Wells Fargo July builder-confidence reading was 34, a fifteenth straight month below 40; and NAR's June existing-home sales were down 2.4% to a 4.09-million pace at a $440,600 median with 4.6 months of supply. Builders are not short of confidence because financing is cheap. Canadian desks spent the weekend of Saturday July 18 and Sunday July 19 data-quiet, with the setup unchanged since Wednesday: the Bank of Canada holding at 2.25% (prime 4.45%) after its July 15 sixth-consecutive decision, the best broker insured 5-year fixed near 4.04%, CREA's June package showing a $696,078 national average price with the MLS Home Price Index flat month over month and 4.8 months of inventory, and the next decision not until September 2. The cross-border mortgage gap held near 251 basis points. The only scheduled US housing print of note in the week ahead was the Census Bureau's June new-home sales report, due late in the week. Run the supply picture through your own underwriting before you assume a rent number holds: maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial for cap rate, cash-on-cash and DSCR, and maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential for the Canadian payment side. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

The morning after the double-header, Canadian bond and broker desks reopened to digest a sixth consecutive hold at 2.25% (prime 4.45%) and a fresh Monetary Policy Report, then settled into a data-quiet stretch — the next Bank of Canada decision was not until September 2. The action moved south, and all of it pointed one way. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey jumped the US 30-year fixed to a fresh 2026 high of 6.55%, up from 6.49%, with the 15-year at 5.93%. That is 12 basis points above the seven-week low set two weeks earlier, and it reversed the entire post-payrolls rally. The NAHB/Wells Fargo July builder-confidence index slipped two points to 34 — a fifteenth straight month below 40, the line that separates builders who see good conditions from builders who do not. Fifteen months is not a soft patch; it is a posture. NAR's June existing-home sales package, already on the board, showed resales down 2.4% to a 4.09-million annual pace at a $440,600 median, with 4.6 months of supply. And Friday morning the Census Bureau and HUD released June New Residential Construction — housing starts, building permits and completions — at 8:30 a.m. ET, completing the June American picture. Why it matters to a Canadian: this is the week the cross-border gap widened instead of narrowing. With the Canadian best broker insured 5-year fixed still near 4.04% and the US 30-year at 6.55%, the spread pushed to roughly 251 basis points from 245 — and a rising American rate against a flat Canadian one makes a US rental progressively harder to underwrite, not easier. Every basis point of that gap flows straight through to monthly carry and to the debt-service coverage ratio a US lender will actually accept. The Canadian reference points behind it were unchanged: CREA's June package showing a $696,078 national average price with the MLS Home Price Index flat month over month and 4.8 months of inventory, and a Government of Canada 5-year benchmark holding its roughly 3.05%–3.15% cycle-low band. With no domestic release scheduled until September, those numbers were going to be the standing Canadian backdrop for six weeks. If you are weighing a US purchase against a Canadian one, this is the week to re-run the comparison rather than rely on a spring assumption: cap rate, cash-on-cash and DSCR at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial, and the Canadian payment and stress-test math at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

Rate Watch, week of July 13: Saturday July 11 and Sunday July 12 closed the weekend with markets shut, and Monday July 13 and Tuesday July 14 each passed without a scheduled Canadian primary-source release, so the setup went into the decision frozen exactly where Friday's jobs report left it. Then Wednesday delivered the densest afternoon of Canadian real-estate signal of the summer. The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate target at 2¼ per cent for the sixth consecutive time, keeping the policy rate at 2.25% and prime at 4.45%, and published a full Monetary Policy Report with updated inflation and growth projections alongside the 9:45 a.m. ET announcement. The hold was what overnight index swaps had priced, but it was not a formality: May inflation was still running at 3.2% year over year against the Bank's 2% target midpoint, and June's Labour Force Survey had just shown the unemployment rate falling a second month to 6.5% on 18,000 new jobs. Both argued for patience rather than relief. CREA's June 2026 national sales package landed the same afternoon and told the more interesting story. National sales rose 0.5% month over month — a third consecutive monthly gain, following May's 5.5% jump, putting national activity 7% above where it sat in March and 0.9% above June 2025. The national average home price came in at $696,078, up 0.5% year over year. The MLS Home Price Index was flat month over month for the first time since January 2025, and down 3.6% year over year, the smallest annual decline since October. Inventory held at 4.8 months, unchanged from May and the lowest level of 2026, and the sales-to-new-listings ratio climbed back above balanced-market territory to 50.2%, the first time it had done so this year. Why it matters: a flat price index is a bigger deal than a small sales gain. For eighteen months the MLS Home Price Index had done nothing but fall; June is the month it stopped. Paired with the tightest inventory of the year and a sales-to-new-listings ratio back in balance, the June package is the first coherent evidence that Canadian resale housing found a floor rather than a pause — which changes the calculation for a buyer who has been waiting for prices to fall further. On the financing side nothing moved. The best broker insured 5-year fixed stayed anchored near 4.04%, tracking a Government of Canada 5-year benchmark still in its roughly 3.05%–3.15% cycle-low band. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed sat at 6.49% for the week ending July 9, up from 6.43%, with the 15-year at 5.82% — both still below year-ago levels of 6.72% and 5.86% — keeping the cross-border mortgage gap near 245 basis points. NAR's June pending home sales were due the following day, and the Bank's next decision was set for September 2. For a 2026 renewer the July 15 outcome means another flat payment and no first sign of relief; for a buyer, it means the market you were waiting to soften has stopped softening. Model both against your own numbers at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential and maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

Rate Watch, week of July 6: US bond and equity markets reopened Monday July 6 after the two-session holiday close, and Monday, Tuesday July 7 and Wednesday July 8 each passed without a scheduled Canadian housing or rates release. The story through midweek was the countdown rather than any print — nine days, then eight, then seven to the July 15 double-header. Overnight index swaps priced a sixth-consecutive hold as the high-probability outcome, with only a single-digit chance of a July hike, and the C.D. Howe Institute's Monetary Policy Council had voted unanimously in June to hold at 2.25%. Then the week delivered its two-day data sprint. Thursday July 9 brought Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the first concrete US mortgage-rate catalyst since the Independence Day holidays; it nudged the 30-year fixed back up to 6.49% for the week ending July 9 from the prior week's seven-week-low 6.43%, with the 15-year at 5.82%. Friday July 10 brought the number that actually counted. Statistics Canada's June Labour Force Survey was the last major Canadian macro release the Bank would have in hand before deciding, because June CPI does not print until after the meeting. Consensus looked for the unemployment rate to hold at 6.6% and for a modest gain of roughly 10,000 jobs after May's blockbuster +88,000, which had pulled the jobless rate down from 6.9%. The print came in firmer than that. Employment rose 18,000 in June and the unemployment rate slipped to 6.5% from 6.6% — a second straight monthly decline. The employment rate ticked up to 60.8%, and youth unemployment fell 0.7 points to 12.7%. Why it matters: a labour market that keeps tightening is not a labour market that forces a central bank to cut. With May inflation still at 3.2% year over year, above the Bank's 2% target midpoint, a second consecutive drop in the jobless rate removed the last easy argument for near-term relief and left the July 15 decision looking like another hold — which is exactly how swaps had it priced. For borrowers the numbers on the ground were unchanged through the week: the overnight rate at 2.25% (prime 4.45%), the best broker insured 5-year fixed anchored near 4.04% against a Government of Canada 5-year benchmark still in its roughly 3.05%–3.15% cycle-low band, and the US 30-year at 6.49% for a cross-border gap of roughly 245 basis points. CREA's June national sales package and NAR's June pending home sales were both still ahead, on July 15 and July 16. If you are renewing in 2026 or buying for the first time, a firm jobs number is the signal to stop waiting for a cut and start modelling the payment you can actually get quoted. Run it on the Maple Syrup Money mortgage payment and affordability + stress-test calculators at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential, and pressure-test a rental at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

Rate Watch, week of June 29, continued: the holiday-shortened week closed with three consecutive dark sessions. Friday July 3 was the observed US Independence Day, so the NYSE, Nasdaq and the US bond market were closed and did not reopen until Monday July 6; Saturday July 4 and Sunday July 5 were weekend closes on both sides of the border. Canadian exchanges traded an ordinary Friday session with no domestic release. That left Thursday's Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey as the week's last and most consequential housing number, and it moved in buyers' favour. The 30-year fixed eased to 6.43% for the week ending July 2, down from 6.49% and its lowest reading in roughly seven weeks, with the 15-year slipping to 5.79%. Freddie Mac noted purchase demand edging higher as buyers responded to the modest improvement in affordability. The move traced directly back to Thursday's soft June Employment Situation — 57,000 payrolls against a roughly 110,000 forecast, April and May revised down a combined 74,000, unemployment at 4.2% — which pushed Treasury yields lower and took mortgage rates with them. For a cross-border investor the practical read is that the mortgage gap was still wide but narrowing at the margin: Canada's best broker insured 5-year fixed sat near 4.04% against that US 6.43%, a spread of roughly 239 basis points versus about 245 a week earlier. On a US rental that difference is not cosmetic — it is the monthly carry. The wider American context stayed constructive. NAR's most recent reading had May pending home sales up 3.8% month over month and 4.8% year over year, with chief economist Lawrence Yun expecting sales to improve in the second half of 2026 if inventory kept expanding; the June pending-sales report was due July 16. North of the border nothing changed. The Bank of Canada's overnight rate held at 2.25% (prime 4.45%) after its June 10 fifth-consecutive hold, May inflation was still running at 3.2% year over year — above the Bank's 2% target midpoint — and the Government of Canada 5-year benchmark stayed in its roughly 3.05%–3.15% cycle-low band. That combination is what made the coming decision genuinely two-sided rather than a formality: above-target inflation argued for patience, while a visibly cooling US labour market showed how fast the external backdrop can shift the conversation. Everything from here pointed at Wednesday July 15, when the Bank would pair a rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET with a full Monetary Policy Report while CREA released its June national sales package the same afternoon — the densest single day of Canadian real-estate signal of the summer, with the Fed's next meeting following July 28–29. The quiet stretch before it was the time to run scenarios rather than react to them: model a hold against a cut with the Maple Syrup Money mortgage payment and affordability + stress-test calculators at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential, and pressure-test any rental underwriting with the cap rate, cash-on-cash and DSCR tools at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

Canada opened the second half of 2026 with the lights off. Rate Watch, week of June 29: Wednesday July 1 was Canada Day, so Canadian exchanges and bond desks were closed with no domestic housing or rates release, and the setup carried over from quarter-end untouched — the Bank of Canada's overnight rate held at 2.25% (prime 4.45%) after its June 10 fifth-consecutive hold, the Government of Canada 5-year benchmark still pinned in its roughly 3.05%–3.15% cycle-low band, and the best broker insured 5-year fixed anchored near 4.04%. The next domestic catalyst was already fixed on the calendar: the July 15 decision paired with a full Monetary Policy Report, and CREA's June national sales package the same afternoon. The number that mattered came from the other side of the border, and it came a day early. Because July 4 fell on a Saturday, the United States observed Independence Day on Friday July 3, so the Bureau of Labor Statistics pulled the June Employment Situation forward to 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday July 2. Wednesday's ADP National Employment Report had already softened the ground, showing private payrolls up 98,000 in June — below the roughly 110,000 forecast and down from May's +122,000. The confirmed BLS print was weaker still. The US economy added 57,000 nonfarm payrolls in June, roughly half what economists had modelled, and April and May were revised down by a combined 74,000. The unemployment rate stood at 4.2%. The first trading reaction framed the report as firm enough to delay a Federal Reserve cut, but the confirmed detail read the other way — a labour market cooling faster than the headline suggested, with the Fed's target range held at 3.50%–3.75% since the June 17 FOMC and the next meeting set for July 28–29. Why it matters to a Canadian: US mortgage rates take their cue from the Treasury market, and the Treasury market takes its cue from the jobs data. Softer payrolls pull yields lower and American mortgage rates follow, which narrows at the margin the gap that makes US financing structurally more expensive. Going into the print, Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending June 25 had the 30-year fixed at 6.49% and the 15-year at 5.84%, against a Canadian best broker insured 5-year fixed near 4.04% — a cross-border spread of roughly 245 basis points. That spread is the whole argument on the carrying cost of a US rental versus a Canadian one, and it moves with American labour data, not Canadian. On the Canadian side of the ledger, CREA's May package had national sales up 5.5% month over month with the national average price at $702,079, and the June package was due July 15 alongside the rate decision. Nothing in the first two days of July forced a Canadian rate move, which left the window open to lock a pre-approval or model a renewal before that double-header. Run your own numbers on the Maple Syrup Money mortgage payment, affordability and stress-test calculators at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential, and compare a US rental's cap rate, cash-on-cash and DSCR at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.