June 2026.

Rate Watch, week of June 29: Saturday June 27 and Sunday June 28 carried no scheduled primary-source releases, Monday June 29 reopened the final business-day stretch of the quarter with nothing on the domestic calendar, and Tuesday June 30 closed it the same way. The quarter ended not on a catalyst but on a plateau. The confirmed number from the just-closed week was Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending June 25: the US 30-year fixed averaged 6.49%, up two basis points from 6.47% the prior week and down from 6.77% a year earlier, with the 15-year at 5.84%. Chief Economist Sam Khater characterised the 30-year as 'little changed' and noted rates had held relatively stable over roughly the last six weeks — the second-quarter mid-6% plateau intact as US 10-year Treasury yields stayed elevated on the higher-for-longer path set by the June 17 Fed hold and no-cut 2026 dot plot. Why six stable weeks matter more than any single print: a plateau is a planning window. For most of 2025 and early 2026 a borrower could not hold a rate assumption for a month without it moving; a six-week band means a pre-approval, a renewal quote and a rental underwriting can all be built on the same number and still be true when the deal closes. The Canadian side closed the quarter equally still. The Government of Canada 5-year benchmark held the roughly 3.05%–3.15% cycle-low band it had occupied since the June 10 decision, below the 3.20% level the broker channel needs cleared before it revises five-year fixed sheets lower — range-bound rather than breaking, which kept the best high-ratio insured five-year fixed anchored near 4.04% and the best five-year variable near 3.45%, and left the cross-border headline gap against the US 30-year at roughly 245 basis points. A re-energised geopolitical bid sat under bond yields through the close. The policy backdrop was the one set mid-month and unchanged since: the Bank of Canada at 2.25% for a fifth consecutive decision with prime at 4.45%, and the Federal Reserve at 3.50%–3.75% with no cut left in its 2026 projections. Statistics Canada's April GDP by industry, released June 26, was the freshest domestic growth read going into the quarter close, and CREA's May package — sales up 5.5% month over month, average price $702,079 — remained the standing housing reference until CREA's June package on July 15. The runway from here was short and dense: the July 1 Canada Day close, then the US June jobs report and Freddie Mac survey both pulled forward to Thursday July 2 ahead of the July 3 observed Independence Day close, and the marquee July 15 Bank of Canada decision with a full Monetary Policy Report. Use a stable quarter to model rather than react: maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential and maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

The last full week of the quarter carried three catalysts in three days, and all of them were about whether the higher-for-longer path holds. Wednesday June 24 brought the Census Bureau and HUD's May New Residential Sales report at 10:00 a.m. ET, the first read on the American new-construction sales market since April's 622,000-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate — down 6.2% from March's 663,000 pace and 11.3% below the April 2025 rate of 701,000 on affordability strain, with new-home inventory at 489,000 for sale, a 9.4-month supply at the April sales rate, a $422,500 median price and a $508,800 average. The NAHB's read on that April print was blunt about the cause: affordability at mid-6% mortgage rates, not appetite. Thursday June 25 was a Freddie Mac survey day, releasing at 12 p.m. ET as the week's standout US rates catalyst, with the 30-year fixed holding little changed near the prior week's 6.47% and the 15-year at 5.81% as Treasury yields stayed elevated on Chair Kevin Warsh's June 17 hawkish hold and no-cut 2026 dot plot. Friday June 26 closed the week with a month-end inflation double-header. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released May Personal Income and Outlays at 8:30 a.m. ET, carrying the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, and the first major read on it since the June 17 hold. The same morning Statistics Canada released real gross domestic product by industry for April, the last major Canadian growth read before the July 15 decision, updating the advance estimate flagged in the May 29 package that had pointed to output rising 0.4% on gains in mining, quarrying and oil-and-gas extraction, manufacturing, and transportation and warehousing, partially offset by declines in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting. Why it matters: the US 30-year fixed tracks the 10-year Treasury, and the 10-year tracks the Fed's inflation gauge — so core PCE, not the mortgage market, sets the American rate a Canadian investor will be quoted on a Sun Belt rental. A firm print reinforces the higher-for-longer path that has held the 30-year in the mid-6% range, keeping the gap wide against Canada's roughly 4.04% insured five-year fixed. Nine and a half months of new-home supply on the other side of that trade is the reason the rent assumption deserves as much scrutiny as the rate. Canadian desks closed the week still pricing the hotter-than-expected May CPI released June 22 — headline back to 3.2% year over year — with CREA's May package (sales up 5.5% month over month, average price $702,079) the standing domestic reference. Re-run a US deal against a no-cut 2026 at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial, and the Canadian comparison at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

Statistics Canada released the May Consumer Price Index Monday at 8:30 a.m. ET — the last major Canadian inflation read before the July 15 Bank of Canada decision, and the first monthly print calculated on the updated 2026 CPI basket weights, rebased on 2025 household-expenditure patterns. It ran hot. Headline inflation reaccelerated to 3.2% year over year from 2.8% in April, on a third straight month of gasoline gains, with the seasonally adjusted index up 0.5% on the month — putting it back above the top of the Bank of Canada's 1%–3% control range and well above the 2% target. CPI excluding gasoline firmed to 2.2%, so the pressure was not purely energy. Food from stores rose 4.3%, a sixteenth consecutive month running above headline. Why it matters: this is the print that ends the argument. Coming into June there was a coherent dovish case built on flat first-quarter GDP and a soft April jobs report. The June 5 employment snapback took most of it, and a 3.2% headline back outside the control range took the rest. A central bank does not cut with inflation above the top of its own band. The grocery number deserves its own line. Sixteen straight months of food inflation running above headline is not a spike — it is a structural squeeze on exactly the households trying to save a down payment, and it compounds quietly while the rate debate gets the attention. Tuesday's session showed the transmission. Because broker-channel fixed-mortgage pricing keys off the Government of Canada 5-year benchmark, the firmer inflation read had the benchmark backing up toward the roughly 3.20% threshold the broker channel needs cleared before it revises five-year fixed sheets lower — all but erasing the last dovish case into July 15. The best insured five-year fixed held a 4.04%–4.09% edge and the best variable sat near 3.35%, with the Bank of Canada parked at 2.25% and prime at 4.45% after its June 10 fifth consecutive hold. If you have been waiting for a cut before buying or renewing, this is the month the waiting stopped being a strategy. Model the decision at today's rates at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential, and run an income property at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

Rate Watch, week of June 15, closing: Friday June 19 was Juneteenth, and the US stock and bond markets were fully closed for the federal holiday. No new American housing or mortgage-rate data printed, so Thursday's Freddie Mac survey — which eased the US 30-year fixed to 6.47% from 6.52%, with the 15-year at 5.81% — stood as the week's final US mortgage read. Canadian markets stayed open but quiet ahead of the weekend, and Saturday June 20 and Sunday June 21 closed two further sessions with nothing scheduled. That leaves the week's signal, rather than any single print, as the story — and the signal was higher-for-longer on both sides of the border. The Federal Reserve held at 3.50%–3.75% in Chair Kevin Warsh's debut and stripped the last projected 2026 cut from its dot plot after May US CPI hit a three-year-high 4.2%. The Bank of Canada stayed parked at 2.25% with prime at 4.45% following its June 10 fifth consecutive hold. Why it matters: two central banks holding is not the same as two central banks agreeing. The Fed removed relief from its own forecast; the Bank of Canada simply did not move. For a Canadian borrower the practical consequence is that the domestic rate path stays data-dependent into July 15 while the American one has been pre-committed to patience — which is why the cross-border mortgage gap is structural rather than temporary. The Canadian numbers held steady through the quiet stretch. The Government of Canada 5-year benchmark sat near 3.05%–3.14%, below the roughly 3.20% broker-repricing threshold, partly on easing Middle East tensions taking some of the geopolitical premium out of yields, keeping the best broker insured five-year fixed near 4.04% heading into the July 15 decision. A quiet week is the cheapest time to do the work you will not have time for when a print lands. Model the renewal or purchase at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential, and stress a rental at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

Wednesday was the Federal Reserve's turn, and at Kevin Warsh's debut meeting as Chair the FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% for a fourth consecutive decision in a 10-2 vote. The hold was expected. The projections were not. The updated dot plot stripped out the last projected 2026 cut, after May US CPI printed a three-year-high 4.2%. That is the change that matters: a hold tells you about this meeting, a dot plot tells you about the year, and the Fed's own committee stopped forecasting relief in 2026 altogether. Thursday's Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey was the first read on American mortgage rates after that signal, and it eased rather than spiked — the 30-year fixed slipped to 6.47% from the prior week's 6.52%, with the 15-year at 5.81%, against 6.81% a year earlier. Treasury yields stayed elevated on higher-for-longer pricing, but the mid-6% plateau held. Why it matters to a Canadian: the two central banks are now visibly diverging in posture rather than direction. Both are on hold, but the Bank of Canada is on hold at 2.25% with cooling wage growth and a market still pricing eventual relief, while the Fed is on hold at 3.50%–3.75% with 4.2% inflation and no cut left in its own projections. That holds the Canada–US policy-rate gap around 125 to 150 basis points and locks in the mortgage-rate gap that makes US rental financing structurally more expensive. North of the border nothing moved. The Government of Canada 5-year benchmark held near 3.05%–3.14%, keeping the best broker insured five-year fixed at roughly 4.04%, with the Bank of Canada parked at 2.25% and three and a half weeks to its July 15 decision — a Monetary Policy Report month, so refreshed growth and inflation projections would come with the rate call. If your US underwriting assumed a 2026 Fed cut, the committee just told you to remove it. Re-run the deal without it at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial, and compare the domestic case at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

Rate Watch, week of June 15: after a closed weekend on June 13 and 14, the week delivered the supply side and the demand side of the Canadian housing question a day apart — and the demand side was the story. CMHC's May housing starts landed Monday at 8:15 a.m. ET at a 261,377-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate, down 6% from April's strong 279,317, with the more reliable six-month trend at 258,010 — a step back from April's 17% monthly surge, whose own six-month moving average had risen 3.2% to 256,777, but still holding the level the federal build-more policy stack was designed to sustain, through CMHC's MLI Select expansion, the Prefab Plus 5%-down insurance product and triplex/fourplex insurance flexibility. Tuesday brought CREA's May national package, and it confirmed a clear re-acceleration. National home sales jumped 5.5% month over month, the strongest monthly gain of the spring, though actual unadjusted activity still ran 5.1% below May 2025. The non-seasonally-adjusted national average price climbed to $702,079, up 1.5% year over year — the highest monthly reading in two years, and the first time the measure topped $700,000 in 23 months. The like-for-like measure was steadier but pointed the same way: the National Composite MLS Home Price Index slipped 0.1% month over month, but its 4.1% year-over-year decline was the smallest of 2026, continuing the firming-floor pattern flagged in April's 4.2% print. Under the hood the balance tightened — new listings eased 1% month over month, the national sales-to-new-listings ratio firmed to 49.2% from 46.2% in April, months of inventory fell to 4.8 from the 5.1 that had held from February through April, and total properties listed sat just above 200,000. CREA Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart said prices 'have largely stabilized following some softness earlier in the year,' and Chair Garry Bhaura said the May numbers 'left little doubt that activity is now picking up.' The recovery is uneven: prices remain down year over year in British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario, with gains elsewhere offsetting those declines. Early regional May reads showed the spread — Newfoundland and Labrador set a record average of $374,876, up 11% year over year, Nova Scotia's HPI benchmark edged to $441,400, up 0.9%, while Ontario markets such as North Bay slipped to a $508,435 average, down 2.6%. April's national average had been $695,412, up 2.2% year over year, with the composite index down 4.2%. Why it matters: a national average crossing $700,000 makes headlines, but the composition matters more — average price is skewed by which markets transact, while the MLS Home Price Index is the like-for-like measure, and it was still down 4.1% on the year. The honest read is stabilization, not recovery. The release landed into a stable rate backdrop: the overnight rate held at 2.25% since June 10, prime at 4.45%, the Government of Canada 5-year benchmark near 3.05% and below the 3.20% broker-repricing threshold, so the best broker insured five-year fixed held its roughly 4.04% edge, with Freddie Mac's June 11 survey putting the US 30-year at 6.52%. Run the buy-versus-wait math on your own numbers at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential and maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

The morning after the hold, Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey edged the US 30-year fixed up to 6.52% from 6.48% the prior week — down from 6.84% a year earlier, and holding the second-quarter mid-6% plateau intact. Set against a Canadian best broker insured five-year fixed at roughly 4.04%, that leaves the Canada–US mortgage-rate gap near the wide end of the cycle at roughly 250 basis points. Why it matters, and why it cuts two ways: for a Canadian buying at home, it is a reminder that Canadian first-time buyers finance at materially lower posted rates than their American counterparts even with both central banks on hold. For a Canadian buying in the United States, it is the single largest line item working against the deal — a US Sun Belt single-family rental underwritten on DSCR financing carries 250 basis points more expensive debt than the same borrower's domestic option, at the same time Florida and Texas rents are slipping on oversupply. The rate gap and the rent softness push the same direction. Friday June 12 was the first full trading day after the decision, and it moved in borrowers' favour. The Government of Canada 5-year benchmark eased to roughly 3.05% from the decision-day 3.15% — a single basis point lower on the session and comfortably below the roughly 3.20% broker-channel repricing threshold — keeping the best insured five-year fixed pinned at its 4.04% leading edge and opening a quiet pre-weekend repricing window for the 1.2 million Canadians renewing through the end of 2026. The next domestic catalysts were both the following week: CMHC's May housing-starts print on Monday June 15, and CREA's May national sales package on Tuesday June 16 — the supply side and the demand side of the same question, arriving a day apart, with April starts having run at a 279,317-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate. If a US property is on your list, run it against the Canadian alternative rather than in isolation: cap rate, cash-on-cash and DSCR at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial, and the domestic payment math at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

Rate Watch, week of June 8: markets reopened Monday June 8 for the first post-jobs session, and Tuesday June 9 was the eve of the decision. Neither day carried a scheduled domestic release, so the only thing that moved was positioning — and it moved the way the data implied. Monday's session argued for a modest back-up in yields after Friday's double-header, but the Government of Canada 5-year benchmark held near 3.08%, keeping the best broker insured five-year fixed at its 4.04%–4.09% edge and the best five-year variable near 3.30%–3.35% on an unchanged 4.45% prime, with bond pricing still implying roughly a 96% to 98% probability of a hold. A firming oil-price risk premium emerged as the quarter's fresh inflation thread. By Tuesday the benchmark had backed up to roughly 3.16% — still below the 3.20% broker-repricing threshold, which is why five-year fixed sheets did not move — and all 34 economists in the June 2–5 Reuters poll were looking for a fifth consecutive hold at 2.25% and an unchanged rate through 2026. Industry previews framed the genuine divergence as oil-driven inflation against weak domestic demand: April CPI had run 2.8% on a 19.2% year-over-year energy jump even as the Bank's preferred core measures held a 2.0%–2.3% band. On Wednesday June 10 the decision landed exactly as priced. The Bank of Canada left the overnight rate at 2.25% for a fifth consecutive meeting at its 9:45 a.m. ET announcement, with the bank rate at 2.50%, the deposit rate at 2.20% and prime holding 4.45%. Governor Macklem kept policy 'appropriate' and framed the balance of risks two-sidedly — energy-driven inflation on one side, trade and growth uncertainty on the other. Why it matters: the 5-year benchmark barely moved, ending near 3.15% on a fully-priced hold, and the best broker insured five-year fixed held its roughly 4.04% leading edge. That is the whole point for a borrower — a decision this well telegraphed changes nothing about what you will be quoted. The rate that matters to a renewal is set by the bond market weeks before the announcement, not by the announcement. The qualifying math is unchanged too: applicants still qualify at the greater of the contract rate plus two percentage points or the 5.25% floor, so a flat policy rate means a flat affordability ceiling. For the roughly 1.2 million Canadians renewing through the end of 2026, the practical consequence of a fifth hold is another cycle of payments at current levels and no relief priced before the July 15 meeting, which is a Monetary Policy Report month. Model the renewal against a flat rate rather than a hoped-for cut at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential, and run any income property at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

The first Friday of the month carried a jobs double-header, and both halves came in hot enough to close the argument the dovish minority had been making all spring. Statistics Canada's May Labour Force Survey snapped back with 88,000 jobs added — a 0.4% gain, and a 154,000 rise in full-time work — with the unemployment rate falling 0.3 percentage points to 6.6% and the employment rate rising to 60.7%. It was the first significant employment gain since November 2025 and a sharp reversal of April's 18,000-job decline and six-month-high 6.9% jobless rate. The one soft spot was pay: average hourly wages cooled sharply to 3.0% year over year ($37.24) from April's 4.5%, which is the number the Bank of Canada watches for second-round inflation pressure. The composition mattered more than the headline for anyone watching housing. The gains were construction-led — building trades added 27,000 jobs, up 1.7%, the strongest single-industry print and a direct read on homebuilding momentum into the federal supply push — alongside transportation and warehousing (+19,000), information, culture and recreation (+19,000) and accommodation and food services (+17,000), partly offset by wholesale and retail trade (-35,000). Ontario added 42,000 jobs and its jobless rate fell to 7.0%, the lowest since September 2024. An hour of trading later the US May Employment Situation added 172,000 payrolls — more than double the roughly 80,000 consensus — with unemployment holding at 4.3% for a third straight month, average hourly earnings up 0.3% on the month and 3.4% year over year, and both March and April revised higher. Why it matters: a central bank does not cut into a labour market that is adding jobs and lowering its unemployment rate. Going into that Friday there was a live minority case for a June cut built on flat first-quarter GDP and a weakening April jobs print; by the close the case was gone, and markets still priced roughly a 98% probability of a fifth consecutive hold at 2.25%. Cooling wage growth is the one thread that keeps a later cut alive, but it was not enough to move June. The rates picture barely flinched, which is itself the tell — a fully-priced outcome does not move bonds when it arrives. The Government of Canada 5-year benchmark held near 3.07%, keeping the best broker insured five-year fixed at its 4.04%–4.09% edge and the best five-year variable near 3.30%–3.35% on an unchanged 4.45% prime. Freddie Mac's week-ending-June-4 US 30-year settled in the low 6.5s, with the next survey due Thursday June 11. Saturday June 6 and Sunday June 7 closed the week with markets shut and nothing further scheduled, leaving three days to the decision and the hold effectively cemented. For a borrower the practical read is the same one the whole spring has been pointing at: stop underwriting a purchase or renewal on a rate cut that keeps not arriving, and model the payment you can actually be quoted today. Run it at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential, and pressure-test a rental at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

Rate Watch, week of June 1: the quarter's most consequential month opened with a genuine, short-lived opportunity in the broker channel, and most borrowers never heard about it. Broker-channel fixed-mortgage pricing keys off one number: the Government of Canada 5-year benchmark bond yield. It closed Friday May 29 at a cycle-low of roughly 3.05% — below the 3.20% level the broker channel generally needs cleared before it revises five-year fixed sheets lower — and that opened a repricing window on Monday June 1 with the best broker insured five-year fixed anchored at 3.99%. Tuesday June 2 held near 3.07%, a third consecutive stretch below the threshold, and the 3.99% edge held with room to move lower. Alongside it the best five-year variable sat in the 3.30%–3.35% range, leaving the fixed-variable spread at a cycle-wide 0.45 to 0.85 percentage points. Then it closed. By Wednesday June 3 the benchmark had edged up to 3.08% on the June 1 close, and the best insured five-year fixed firmed to a 4.04%–4.09% leading edge (WOWA at 4.04% via Butler Mortgage, Ratehub at 4.09%) — the sub-4% 3.99% and 3.94% prints that had circulated in late May surviving only in dealer forecasts for later in June. Thursday June 4 was a Freddie Mac survey day, with the US 30-year fixed hovering in the low 6.5s on a geopolitical risk premium and the week-ending-May-28 print of 6.53% still the last confirmed read; daily retail trackers ran 6.49%–6.58% (Bankrate 6.52%, Zillow 6.49%, Optimal Blue near 6.43%). The Canadian benchmark held 3.07% on the June 2 close, with the 2-year at 2.80% and the 10-year at 3.41%, putting the Canada–US 30-year-fixed gap at roughly 245 to 249 basis points. Why it matters: for roughly 1.2 million Canadians renewing through the end of 2026, a three-day window between 3.99% and 4.09% is about five basis points of pricing that appears and disappears without any announcement. The lesson is not to time it — it is to have a rate hold in place before the window opens, because the only borrowers who caught 3.99% were the ones already in an application. The macro setup behind the move was consistently soft. Statistics Canada's May 29 first-quarter GDP release showed real output unchanged after a 0.2% contraction in the fourth quarter of 2025. April's Labour Force Survey had employment down 18,000 with unemployment at a six-month-high 6.9% and wage growth easing to 4.5% year over year. April CPI ran 2.8% headline and 2.0% excluding gasoline. Against that, S&P Global's Canada Manufacturing PMI had printed 53.3 in April, up from 50.0 in March and the strongest improvement in operating conditions since June 2022. Market pricing put roughly a 97% to 98% probability on a fifth consecutive hold at 2.25% on June 10 — an industry poll had about 85% expecting the hold and roughly 13% looking for a cut — with the Reuters economist consensus looking for an unchanged rate through 2026, and the Bank having last moved at its April 29 decision. South of the border the price data turned first: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller's US national home price index fell 0.2% month over month in March, its first monthly decline in eight months, leaving it up just 0.7% year over year, with more than half of the 20 major metros posting annual declines and Chicago leading the gainers at 6.1%. Cotality's June Home Price Insights had prices near flat at roughly 0.4% annual growth and stalling toward zero for 2026. NAR's April pending home sales index rose 1.4% to 74.8, a third straight gain. And Sun Belt rents were slipping hard on apartment oversupply — Jacksonville down 12.4% year over year, Tampa Bay down 6%, Orlando down 4.8%, Miami down 3.8% — the cross-border context for anyone underwriting a US rental on DSCR financing at a 254-basis-point rate disadvantage. Freddie Mac's week-ending-May-28 survey had the 30-year at 6.53% and the 15-year at 5.87%, down year over year from 6.89% and 6.03%, with US 10-year Treasury yields holding a 4.30%–4.40% range. On the Canadian supply side the federal build-more stack was intact: CMHC's Prefab Plus 5%-down insurance product, the modular MLI Select expansion, triplex/fourplex insurance flexibility, and the Home Buyers' Plan grace-period extension through 2028 (up to $4,000 a year per first-time buyer), with April housing starts at a 279,317-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate and the May print due June 15. CREA's April package had the national average price at $695,412, up 2.2% year over year, with the composite MLS Home Price Index down 4.2%. Model your own renewal or purchase before the next window at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/residential, and any rental at maplesyrupmoney.com/tools/commercial. Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.